Energy Transition Programme: Vision creation and vision

Around the turn of the century the Dutch government began to explore the future energy supply in the Netherlands. This was against the background of growing international demand for energy, the depletion of Dutch gas reserves, dependency on unstable oil-producing countries and climate problems. The evaluation resulted in the Dutch Energy Transition Programme.

Creating a vision for the energy supply

The vision creation process started with the formulation of a vision of the Dutch energy supply by a working group of officials of the Ministry of Economic Affairs: the scenario project entitled 'Long Term Vision of the Energy Supply' (LTVE, 2001). During the project long-term trends were identified. The project produced four possible future scenarios for the energy supply up to 2050. They differed in aspects of long-term versus short-term benefits and regional and global developments. Each scenario specified the energy demands and energy sources.

 Guiding principles

On the basis of the scenarios, the working group formulated the following guiding principles for a sustainable energy supply:

• Clean (solution for the climate problem);
• Affordable (effective and energy efficient);
• Certain (reliable, certainty of supply, guarantee of delivery).

Transition paths

This was followed by a search for an alternative to the traditional approach. In the meantime, the group started four projects to explore possible transition paths (possibilities for innovation and the market). These focused on topics that were relevant for all of the scenarios in the LTVE:

• Modernisation of energy chains: efficient use of energy and materials in production chains
• Biomass international: for products, materials and energy
• New Gas: efficient and green
• Sustainable Rijnmondn

The working group then assessed the government's ambitions at meetings with stakeholders, where they discussed ideas for themes (transition paths) that should be explored further and how to proceed.

Creating a vision for transition paths

From 2002/2003, the transition management approach was followed and transition platforms were established. These platforms were consortia of private parties and research institutions, each one dedicated to one of the seven transition paths. In addition to the 'old' themes of biomass, new gas and energy-efficiency in the built-up environment, the other themes were sustainable electricity, sustainable mobility and the greenhouse as a source of energy.

Target situations, sub-paths and portfolios

The platforms then formulated target situations and sub-paths. For example, the Biomass platform (now the Bio-based Raw Materials Platform) formulated the target that 30% of primary energy consumption should be based on biomass by 2030. The platform identified four paths along which that ambition could be achieved:

• Biomass to be used for 60% of all fuels by 2030
• Biomass to account for 25% of the feedstock used in the chemical sector
• Biomass to account for 25% of the raw materials in electricity production
• Biomass to account for 17% of the raw materials in heat production.

The platforms also produce ideas for projects that will help to achieve the target situations and sub-paths.

New vision

In 2006, the government-appointed Energy Supply Task Force formulated a new vision for the energy supply in the Netherlands. The new vision was prompted by comments made by the Dutch Environment Council, the Energy Council, among others. They suggested that the transition did not yet have enough national support and also lacked an international dimension.

Among the new targets formulated by the task force were:

• 50% reduction of CO emissions by 2050, compared with 1990
• Stimulation of further economic growth and strengthening of energy-related activities
• Cumulative energy savings of 1.5% to 2% a year
• Further greening of the Dutch energy supply.

Criticism

Scientists engaged in system innovations and transitions were critical of the ministry's approach to the transition. Some argued that in fleshing out the overall vision the ministry relied too much on large, established actors who are less innovative than smaller players. A second criticism was that there was a heavy emphasis on new technologies in the programmes, while institutional aspects (such as changes in regulations) had been ignored. The government in fact addressed this last criticism quite quickly. A third criticism was that the programme was highly centralised, paying too little attention to and providing too little support for the many initiatives at regional level. The final criticism concerned the absence of end users in the platforms and the lack of involvement of NGOs.

Sources